Leonard Wa Muthende maintains a strong lead, but Newton Karish’s recent surge signals a tightening race that could make the final outcome unpredictable.
According to the multi-phase survey, Wa Muthende started at 33.3% in September, climbed to 40.1% in October, peaked at 47.5% on November 8, and slightly eased to 44.6% by November 19.
These figures confirm his consistent popularity across all rounds of polling (see full report here).
Karish, who had dropped from 40.1% in September to 33.1% in October, rebounded sharply in the November surveys, rising from 28.9% to 42.4% by the 19th.
Analysts suggest that his recovery reflects a well-timed campaign strategy that is energizing undecided voters and reactivating sections of his support base.
Duncun Mbui, meanwhile, has maintained a smaller but steady share of the vote. His support dipped from 20% in September to roughly 5–6% in the November surveys, indicating a loyal following that is unlikely to alter the broader race dynamics.
Undecided voters, a key factor in any election, have shown significant movement. After rising to 21.5% in October, this category dropped to 16.5% on November 8 and fell further to just 7.3% by November 19.
This decline suggests that voters are making firmer choices as campaigning intensifies, reducing uncertainty ahead of the polls.
Observers note that the race is entering a crucial phase. Every rally, door-to-door visit, and social media push could influence the final vote.
While Wa Muthende continues to lead, Karish’s momentum cannot be ignored, and a strong turnout could tip the scales.
As the election draws closer, constituents will be watching to see if Wa Muthende can maintain his edge or if Karish will mount a late surge.
The shrinking margins make this one of the most closely monitored contests in the region.
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