With less than two years to the next general election, opposition still seems to be intact and determined to form the next government. However, there's one opposition principal who risks losing his seat if he doesn't appear on the presidential ballot. This is Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembea.
Natembea is currently engaging Moses Wetangula in supremacy battle in an attempt to take control of Bukusu leadership.
Through his 'Tawe' movement, Natembea has been asking the Bukusu to reject Wetangula, as he blames the speaker as the reason the region is lagging behind in development.
The Trans Nzoia Governor however risks losing his seat if he runs again in 2027. This is because the county is cosmopolitan with Bukusu and Kalenjins taking the huge portion of the population.
If he doesn't successfully secure the support of all Bukusu then his re-election bid might backfire because the Kalenjins are likely to vote against him since he is against president Ruto who is their kingpin.
Last election, Natembea had the support of the late Raila Odinga who was very influential in Trans Nzoia. Raila's endorsement was a big boost for Natembea and that contributed to his win.
With Raila now out of the picture, he might find it heard to retain his seat especially if Wetangula endorses his opponent who is supported by the Kalenjins.
Wetangula should not be written off because of his silence because he has been the Bukusu kingpin for a long time and cannot be easily dethroned by Natembea.